Saturday, April 25, 2009

IMF: Advanced economies will shrink by "unprecedented" 3.8% in 2009

[From: www.australia.to Story written by Wayne Swan; edited for length]

IMF World Economic Outlook April 2009:

["the deepest global recession since the Great Depression," "a longer, deeper global recession," "The IMF expects every advanced economy except Cyprus to contract in 2009." " ... there is a real danger that the global economy will continue to deteriorate for a protracted period."]

In its latest World Economic Outlook (WEO) released overnight, the IMF paints a bleak outlook for the global economy, and particularly for advanced economies, which are expected to contract by an unprecedented 3.8 per cent in 2009.

The IMF notes that "the global economy is in a severe recession inflicted by a massive financial crisis and acute loss of confidence". It expects the global economy to contract by 1.3 per cent in 2009.

The IMF notes that "by any measure, this downturn represents by far the deepest global recession since the Great Depression"....

The IMF now envisages financial market stabilisation to take longer than previously expected and cautions that even once the crisis is over, growth may take some time to recover.

Against this backdrop, the IMF now expects a longer, deeper global recession. This latest report contains the fifth downgrade of the IMF's global growth forecasts in just over six months, illustrating just how rapidly the global economy has deteriorated....

Deep recessions are forecast for all major advanced economies. The United States is expected to contract by 2.8 per cent in 2009, the euro area by 4.2 per cent, the UK by 4.1 per cent and Japan by 6.2 per cent. The IMF expects every advanced economy except Cyprus to contract in 2009....

The IMF expects the global economy will recover gradually in 2010. However, it cautions that recovery will only be achieved if authorities continue efforts to heal the financial sector, while continuing to support demand with monetary and fiscal easing. The IMF warns that there is a real danger that the global economy will continue to deteriorate for a protracted period.

The global recession has severely eroded government budgets around the world, with budget deficits for major advanced economies expected to reach 10½ per cent in 2009....

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